Daily Market Analysis

2022-09-12

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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08:37:18
Pete
Lot's of great dialogue over the weekend. Here are a few comments. 1. There is a monumental difference between being a longer term swing trader with a month+ time perspective, a short term swing trader with a < 1 week...
08:40:42
Pete
If you are trading technicals it does not matter what Pete, Hari, Morgan Stanley or Jim Cramer said. Fundamentals do not matter. You do not have to worry about wars and interest rates and credit. Just follow what the bullish...
08:41:45
Pete
08:42:20
Pete
08:42:57
Pete
08:43:24
Pete
08:46:35
Pete
From a technical standpoint today, we are on an H1 and a M30 bullish divergence... period. Both agree and both are bullish short term. That means we should favor the long side for our trades. If the M30 cycle is...
08:49:45
Pete
Given the gap up this morning, our most favorable scenario is a gradual drift lower with mixed overlapping candles. That would be a sign that the down trend is weak and that we will find support before the opening gap...
08:52:08
Pete
Why would I not chase a gap and go? The price action on the close Friday does not tell me this is the last train out of town. If we closed with stacked green on volume, it would be a...
09:29:46
Pete
Over seas markets were positive so we have a good back drop. CPI Tues and PPI Wed. 
09:38:03
Pete
SPY bear engulf forming. That is why we do not chase the open. 
09:53:35
Pete
I like getting long
09:54:19
Pete
We held the gap up and we are grinding higher. We have the M5 bullish cross and the M30 and H1 1OP supporting this move
10:18:15
Pete
So we have M30 and H1 almost bullish crosses and M5 looks good. No reason to change course. Ride your longs
10:33:38
Pete
You can clearly see a D1 trendline breach. It is short term so not as significant as the longer term down trend, but meaningful. You can see it more clearly using H2 because you have better points to draw to. 
10:37:03
Pete
Long green candle, compress, long green candle, compress. If you are not long, you miss those green candles. As long as the open from the last long green candle holds, all clear. If it fails, take gains on longs and...
10:44:53
Pete
If this candle finishes green, you will quickly see a new hod. If it finishes red and < open of last long green candle you have to be careful. I believe we will have a nice tail and that is...
10:49:11
Pete
This needs to be a green candle and if we get it we will see a new hod 10 min after
10:56:16
Pete
That is not the candle we wanted M5. Now you need to be careful with longs.
11:19:32
Pete
Like all technical analysis, you are bullish and you know the price action that is consistent with staying bullish. When the price action tells be cautious, you take gains. That does not mean you instantly flip bearish. You need technical...
11:21:50
Pete
I am long here. 1OP continuing to rise. 
11:23:08
Pete
This is still a very gradual 1OP bullish cycle that started Fri. We have not gotten > 0 and this is a long one. Not a high quality one because many little crosses. I prefer to have nice big swings...
11:36:26
Pete
What do I want as a bull? I want this bullish cycle to complete with a new hod. If I don't get that, I have to be careful that we could see a lower high and that the next bearish...
11:41:25
Pete
This is about where i would have been re-entering longs and I would be exiting here. Hopefully with some small gains or scratches on stock trades. Tiny little bodied candles and no follow through on those green candles. 
11:42:17
Pete
The market does not feel like it is going to offer much movement. There is safety in the right stocks, but for trading /ES there is nothing to lean on.
11:48:01
Pete
A nice benign little bearish cycle that preserves $410 would be great from a bullish perspective. It would give us a potentially good M5 cross and we know we have M30 and H1 about to have bullish crosses. A bearish...
11:49:58
Pete
You are just watching the price action, knowing what you want to happen as a bull and as a bear and which scenarios you would favor. If there are new puzzle pieces that fit together, you are staying flexible in...
12:09:54
Pete
12:28:57
Pete
From a day trading perspective I am watching for a wimpy bounce and a long red candle. That would produce a clean break of the lod and the bearish 1OP cross would fill some if not all of the gap....
12:30:21
Pete
If this bearish cycle produces nothing, that is OK too. Then we have held the lod and the gap and the next bullish cycle should be good. That also is consistent with M30 and H1 (both just crossing). 
12:31:02
Pete
To Dave and Hari's point, they are saying not to trade. Very sound. This is when you evaluate which scenario is going to play out. 
12:42:22
Pete
12:44:20
Pete
Without any of that selling pressure today, I would NOT even remotely be thinking of bearish trades. If we were staying near the hod, there would be no reason to. Now that sellers have flexed their muscles and I can...
12:46:08
Pete
Does this throw my bullish backdrop out of the window? No. Those M30 and H1 crosses are still there. I am just trying to make money day trading and this is a good pattern if it happens. I am playing...
12:48:34
Pete
If the bottom falls out today, does it change my bullish backdrop? It might, but I am not going to flip on longer time frames until I see more. Remember, we are evaluating whether M30 and H1 bullish cycles produce....
12:54:01
Pete
A  poke thru VWAP followed by a bearish engulfing candle would interest me on the short side. That is what I am watching for. Lure in buyers and slam to door. This is a wimpy bounce. 
13:02:26
Pete
I would be short here.
13:02:46
Pete
small. remember only 1/2
13:04:11
Pete
Close above VWAP followed by a long red candle is what I told you I was looking for. I would use the VWAP as a general stop, but small position so I would just watch what this bear cycle can...
13:05:33
Pete
No hard stop, I would just let it do its thing for a bar or two or three.
13:07:31
Pete
The consolation of a losing trade here is that if I am wrong, the bear cycle runs without any damage and that puts the bullish scenario back on track where I would be willing to trade larger size
13:12:19
Pete
This would be a better reversal candle because it also broke the down trendline M5. That will draw in buyers. Let's see if it is a solo. If it is, I will be in good shape on the short. If...
13:28:14
Pete
This is shaping up to be a nice benign bearish cycle and it puts the bullish case back on the table. pivot. close 1/2 short and buy full long
13:41:21
Pete
There is a ton more analysis that goes into /ES than stocks (most days). If you are in excellent stocks and the market is not providing much movement either way you have much more staying power in stocks and relative...
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