Daily Market Analysis

2022-09-09

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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07:34:47
Pete
In this volatile market I would primarily be day trading because of the "beefy" intraday ranges. I would consider a very short term swing trade that lasts a few days, but I can't justify going farther out in time than...
07:40:43
Pete
If the shorter term time frames start to flip (M5, M15) I start to have a more balanced approach. This could be a market transition or just a short term bounce. In any event, there will be volatility as bulls...
08:05:26
Pete
08:13:21
Pete
08:22:05
Pete
08:27:01
Pete
1OP was telling us that the tide was changing on longer time frames and I was aware of it. Yesterday I felt that the gap down and the proximity to an M5 bearish cross would provide me with an opportunity...
08:28:28
Pete
I did recognize that long red candle as news and I traded it, but you can see how quickly that move ran its course and there was an excellent buying opportunity on the bullish cross and trading that cross was...
08:29:11
Pete
I took gains on that short very quickly because I did not know the nature of the news and because the backdrop was changing. 
08:31:54
Pete
So how do I trade this information with a gap up this morning? If you can hang on for another 10 minutes, I will give you the roadmap for today.
08:37:25
Pete
We are going to test the 100-day MA and the 50-day MA this morning. 1OP M5 is in a trough and it will start on a bullish cross. If we see stacked green candles consecutively with little to no overlap...
08:44:14
Pete
A more likely scenario is that we try to get through, but that these MAs are going to provide some resistance. We will poke through and fall back (100-day) and there will be mixed candles. The opening 1OP bullish cross...
08:47:27
Pete
If we see stacked red candles consecutively (10%) the gap will fill instantly and resistance at the 100-day MA will be confirmed. I see this as less likely just because of the price action the last few days. I don't...
08:49:30
Pete
If we blow thru the MAs today it will be bullish and there is a likelihood the low of the year is in. 
08:50:36
lilsgymdan
@Pete it looks like SPY is already 2$ over both MA's right now, am I reading the analysis incorrectly?
08:51:57
Pete
Stay flexible and watch the price action. This is a critical juncture. By the same token if all of this goes to crap (like in the email I sent yesterday) we are testing the low of the year. 
08:53:13
Pete
@lilsgymdan I don't trust pre-open moves. They are an indication and nothing more. How many of these overnight moves reverse in the first 10 minutes? Alot. 
08:57:25
Pete
BTW, the "Fed Speak" schedule is loaded today.SubZer0 wrote:Tomorrow's events... more Fed talk 10:00AM Wholesale Inventories MoM 10:00AM Fed Evans Speech 12:00PM Fed George Speech 12:00PM Fed Waller Speech 01:00PM Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 01:00PM Baker Hughes Oil Rig...
08:58:17
Pete
BTW  the "Fed Speak" schedule is loaded today so we should see some action
09:11:36
Pete
SubZer0 wrote: @Pete Trying to follow your comments today. For day-trading, are you suggesting we should watch 1OP on multiple timeframes to make a decision or just stick to M5?Your day trading decisions are based on the green dots at the...
09:13:18
Pete
Just like driving a car. Major intersection, look both ways before proceeding. You see stacked green candles, all clear. You see something less, yield and wait before you proceed.  
09:17:12
Jerson
@Pete you mentioned buying puts in case SPY rejects both SMA, how far out in DTE do you recommend, again not buying them until I see the scenario playing out
09:21:17
Pete
@Jerson Since that was a swing reference, go out to Nov and go down to the $390 strike. You want time decay to be minimal and you are looking for a big move down to the loy. You are only taking...
09:29:33
Pete
This breakout will gain lots of attention and it already has. Bullish specs are not waiting for the bell, they are buying futures now. That is why we blew thru them. Institutions are not likely to be so excited and...
09:32:42
Pete
Evan's is first Fed speak in 30 min so be aware.
09:38:20
Pete
I can tell you 6 minutes in these are not stacked green candles. This candle retraced half of the long green candle. This does not mean we won't go higher, but it does tell me that institutions do not feel...
09:44:54
Pete
Given the lack of stacked candles and Fed speak from purely an SPY standpoint, prudent to wait.
09:54:49
Pete
Gap up and 100-day MA is holding. That is bullish. 
09:56:05
Pete
1OP just crossed so we have that working. Any breakout to the upside I would join after Evan's starts speaking. Any drop below the lod I would hold off and expect some gap fill. 
09:56:29
Pete
Being patient and not chasing has served you well. You missed nothing.
10:02:50
Pete
I would start buying.
10:03:37
Pete
Long SPY $404.80
10:04:05
Pete
Full position. I will ride this trade out and post the exit and be done posting SPY for the day. I want to record a video
10:06:10
Pete
Jerson wrote: Keep in mind everyone that there is a downward trendline on SPY from 8/16-8/26 Excellent point. It comes into play around SPY $408
10:08:07
Pete
SPY $404.30 stop. The open of the last green candle should not be tested. If it is I will take the $.50 loss. Still need to be cautious with Fed Speak. Will raise stop as SPY climbs 
10:17:26
Pete
SPY tested half of the last long green candle and it bounced. That becomes my new stop and I do not want to go back there and I do not expect to. $404.60 stop
10:19:49
Pete
Exit SPY scratch
10:21:01
Pete
I don't like this bearish hammer off of the hod and 1OP about to cross. I will record a video and you will get the play by play for the next 30 min. 
10:22:28
Pete
A nice brief and shallow 1OP cycle with minimal retracement is what bulls want. A nasty bearish cycle with long red candles flushed out bullish specs and fills some of the gap.
10:25:30
Pete
If $404.28 fails we test the lod. 
11:37:31
Pete
This bearish cycle did not produce much and the next bullish cross should be good SPY
11:38:59
Pete
Long SPY $405.80
11:39:41
Pete
We still have some upside, but as far as bullish trend days go, many of these gap and go's run out of steam after 90 min.
11:40:42
Pete
The game plan the rest of the day is to just wait for dips. Buy and take gains on the move higher... repeat.
11:44:53
Pete
I am fairly confident in the SPY long. The bearish cycle did not produce a bid drop, we are > major MAs and I have a bullish cross pending. So my stop is $405. Fairly wide but I want to...
11:47:31
Pete
Choppy little grind higher is what I expect today. If I see a long green candle I will be taking gains. One thing you will notice is 1OVol or SPY. just average right now
11:48:18
Pete
If I do not get a new hod from this bullish cycle I will exit. That is my expectation at minimum
12:13:54
Pete
I am still in the SPY long. 
12:15:04
Pete
I am having to sweat (not really) because I entered before a bullish cross. I thought I could weather any small dip while I get this video ready
12:17:22
Pete
Exit SPY $1.00 loss
12:19:29
Pete
I am ready to re-enter. I have the bullish cross now and this is where I should have been considering the long in the first place 
12:33:12
Pete
We would need to clear $405.10 for me to get long on this bullish cross. 
12:35:21
Pete
Long SPY $405.10
12:36:28
Pete
i had to wait for that bar to complete. This is where I should have entered. Being early is rarely good when it comes to 1OP. It is early and often the cycle continues lower
12:38:31
Pete
I need instant progress to stay in. Why? Because that drop from the high looked very real and it attracted shorts. When they cover it will fuel the rally to the hod. If that does not happen I need to...
12:41:27
Pete
No short covering move would tell me that they are not that short to get squeezed or that buyers are not that interested in buying this dip or that there are still sellers. Any of those would not be good.
12:47:07
Pete
If this bar is not green I will exit.
12:50:54
Pete
SPY my stop is $405.20. I got the green candle. Now I want to see a new hod. 
13:06:10
Pete
The breakout needs to come soon or I will take gains. 
13:07:48
Pete
That last candle was a probe for buyers and it turned into a bullish hammer which is a sign that buyers are still there. I don't want to compress at the hod in the middle of the day, I want...
13:18:15
Pete
Exit SPY $406.50 $1.40 gain
13:19:34
Pete
I showed you how to be an idiot and how to properly trade 1OP. I am up 4 pts and I should have been up 14. These are tiny bodies and we are in the middle of the day. 
13:20:18
Pete
SPY is also approaching the D1 downtrend line and that could provide some resistance. 
13:56:19
Pete
13:56:40
Pete
13:57:11
Pete
Folks I would have given my right arm for this stuff 20 years ago, but I had to learn it on my own. 
14:00:23
Pete
I am referencing 1OP, but the mentality is the same for any indicator or system. You have to stick to the rules or it won't work. It is also critical to know what other traders are thinking and where they...
14:05:45
Pete
The first compression at the hod what do you think most good day traders are thinking? "I am going to take gains and I will wait for a better re-entry point. Let's see what the cycle brings. I hope we...
14:06:56
Pete
That is how this stuff works. 
14:08:28
Pete
If you want to get proficient at counting cards, you sit in a room and you flip them for hours until you get good at it. If you want to get good at reading price action and 1OP, you go...
14:23:19
Pete
We are thru the dead spot and we have time to find some lottos so let's get to it.
14:24:43
Pete
Long SPY $406.80
14:25:26
Pete
1OP bullish cross and we are thru the D1 SPY trendline. I use normal and it should be thru log chart also
14:30:20
Pete
Exit SPY $.05 gain. I am going to find a stock for lotto instead
14:34:33
Pete
We want a little SPY dip for lottos so I am going to be looking for bullish stocks. I am still mindful of that D1 resistance (trendline). Anything more than a small dip would not be good. $406 needs to...
14:50:59
Pete
Be patient. SPY coming in and 1OP crossed back down
14:51:48
Pete
No need to take lottos yet. Let's see what this bear cycle finishes like. Keep looking
15:16:31
Pete
1OP is ticking lower and SPY ticking higher. We should get a bullish cross soon so have your lottos ready.
15:35:50
Pete
This is one hell of a long bearish cycle. Cross already. I thought we would get that cross a few bars ago.
15:41:18
Pete
Finally a bullish 1OP cross.
15:42:46
Pete
any little market pop and they will really go
15:50:14
Pete
I can tell you that this is a very mild breakout of a major moving average. Tons of mixed candles and low volume. I am NOT impressed. Would I fade it? No, but I sure as heck would not start...
16:04:20
Pete
16:04:48
Pete
Sorry. I forgot to add one of the most important annotations. Where the heck is the volume?
16:52:58
Pete
I have not been swing trading because I don't know what the hell the market is going to do and I don't see any advantage to holding anything longer than an overnight. I feel like I can catch every move...
16:59:27
Pete
When you hit support levels you have to use extreme caution. You need to obliterate them right away and when you buy near term puts you can't wait for multiple tests of support before you breakdown. Even testing the lower...
17:43:56
Pete
Institutions make markets and there is a reason they pay Schwab/Ameritrade a fortune to see your orders. They can feel the ebbs and flows and they know when there is vulnerability. The institutions also make markets for other institutions. They...
17:50:27
Pete
Have a great weekend everybody. Normal trading with decent volume is coming in a week or so.
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