Daily Market Analysis
2022-08-31
Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.
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All Comments
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| 09:30:00 Pete | PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Yesterday we were looking for a gap reversal on the open and we nailed it. The heavy selling from last Friday returned and Asset Managers are in “risk off” mode after extremely hawkish comments from... |
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| 09:31:37 Pete | This is a pre-holiday "inside day" on light volume after a big move and ahead of a major economic release. |
| 09:34:18 Pete | I gave you two decent set-ups to watch for. We don't know which one we will get so pay attention. I am going to watch for the first hour and comment. It has been really hard to motivate myself to... |
| 09:37:33 Pete | We want this bid check to be a whimper. Let the shorts come in and watch for a pop. 1OP could already be crossing |
| 09:40:00 Pete | No need to rush. Watch for tails under body. We need to get thru the mid point of the red candle and hold that. |
| 09:40:56 Pete | I would be a light buyer here. |
| 09:44:58 Pete | I want to see a nice "pop" here early. Institutions can shake out some shorts here. If I don't get the early pop it is a sign that there is still some selling pressure today. I feel that is less... |
| 09:45:12 Pete | Did not have to wait long for that |
| 09:51:26 Pete | This needs to be a green candle or the next one. We are holding the high from the long green candle on a bullish cycle and that is good |
| 09:52:19 Pete | Don't overstay your welcome on the long side. At some point sellers will return. When 1OP gets extended on the upside, take gains on longs. |
| 10:04:12 Pete | We just chewed up that long green candle. That is a sign that shorts won't be squeezed too hard because there are sellers and that we are in for a choppy day. With 1OP getting extended and with the way... |
| 10:21:26 Pete | Every wiggle and jiggle is going to look like a move that is setting up today. As soon as it gets going, it will reverse. That is what you should expect. Ideally, some of these reversals set up when 1OP... |
| 10:28:19 Pete | I have seen enough to tell me that my time is better spent writing. If I see something set up, I will bring it to your attention. |
| 10:31:07 Pete | We have a bearish cross and a gradual drift lower. That jives with the market trend. The problem is that these are tiny bodied candles with overlap and tails. We saw support at the low from Tues and the risk... |
| 10:34:29 Pete | For today, specs are going to favor the downside. This drift lower will lure them in and this could set up a nice short sqz on a dull day. This is one of those times where you "do the right... |
| 10:36:11 Pete | The tiny little candles are a clue. Imagine what other traders might be doing on a day like this and where they might get hurt. That mentality will help you. |
| 10:38:24 Pete | The thrashing that bullish specs have taken will keep dip buying to a min. that means they have already been flushed out and there is no squeeze on longs. |
| 10:40:01 Pete | we want to see this bearish cycle run without any more leakage. We closed the gap and we want to sit right here with these compressed candles. The longer we sit, the greater the chance that shorts will be squeezed.... |
| 10:41:34 Pete | we are nearing the end of a bearish cycle. The ideal candle for me would be a long red candle that turns into a bullish hammer. I would buy that. |
| 10:48:05 Pete | This could be an important bar. Is this a solo? If yes, it is just a sqz and it will reverse quickly. If it holds well, it could be a sign of support. Notice how this one candle wiped out... |
| 10:50:33 Pete | If half of the long green candle is preserved, I would buy this bullish cross |
| 11:04:05 Pete | This bar started red, new lod. That will get shorts excited and lure them in. Now we want this candle to turn into a bullish hammer. If I see that on this cross, we should see a nice bounce. Just... |
| 11:04:57 Pete | if we keep leaking lower, no trade. That would be a sign that sellers are still keeping the pressure on. |
| 11:06:15 Pete | I don't talk about this much, but on the 1OP crosses I want 1OP red to be moving higher. when they are both moving lower (like now) it is not as good a signal and you should wait. |
| 11:18:33 Pete | 1OP crossed back down. Now we are likely to test the lod from Tues and they will try to trigger sell stops. Personally I can't get behind this short because of the engulfing candles yesterday, the deep 1OP trough and... |
| 11:21:34 Pete | This is Option Stalker, not option run around with your head cut off. Instead of chasing game across the field, we are waiting at the watering hold until something shows up that we like. Somedays trading /ES is fast with... |
| 11:22:51 Pete | Stocks are much more forgiving than /ES so if you have the right set-up there, you can be trading even with this drift lower. |
| 11:34:15 Pete | I would be a buyer here. I like this 1OP cross and the tails under body well above the lod from Tues. |
| 11:34:37 Pete | On /ES if I get a nice long green candle I would take half of the gains |
| 11:36:05 Pete | In my trendline and moving average articles I explained that you want to attack these support levels. When you tick down to them it is a sign of support and the risk of a short sqz is high |
| 11:37:59 Pete | You can see how 1OP crossed back down, bottomed out and now we have the cross I like |
| 11:44:25 Pete | If we keep stacking nice little green candles I will stick with it until I see a nice long green candle |
| 11:45:33 Pete | How many traders do you think were expecting us to test the lod? Answer: alot. Now they are getting sqzd |
| 11:47:09 Pete | we are early in the bullish 1OP cycle and those bears are just now starting to feel the heat. Another couple of green candles and they will bail. |
| 11:47:46 Pete | I have my stop at my entry and I will take 1/2 gains on any pop. |
| 11:51:27 Pete | Most bullish specs bailed on Friday. Those who held on puked their bullish positions yesterday. After getting destroyed, do you think they are buying dips? No. That means there is very little pain on the downside because they are gone.... |
| 11:53:15 Pete | The market does not go straight up or straight down. There are retracements and they can be painful. I am longer term bearish and that is how I will be positioned once we get a day of rest or perhaps... |
| 11:53:50 Pete | I am just looking for a trade and where the pain might be. That pain might be the only force I have working for me on a day like this. |
| 11:55:32 Pete | I want a green candle in the next two bars or I will exit the position. Still early in the cycle so will give it time. |
| 12:01:30 Pete | Took 1/2 gain on long at VWAP. |
| 12:02:36 Pete | stop for balance above entry and will exit on the next long green candle. We could get to the hod on this cycle. |
| 12:02:59 Pete | Now it is time to do some writing. See you later. |
| 14:39:57 Pete | Given the path to the lod (mixed overlapping candles) and the 1OP bullish cross, I would be careful with shorts. This could just be to trigger sell stops from buyers at the lod from Tues. We need that long red... |
| 14:42:46 Pete | Just reviewing my article. I will post it after the close. |
| 15:02:05 Pete | Normally a head fake will snap back faster than this. We might see follow thru. |
| 15:03:18 Pete | For me to trade this bullish 1OP cross I would need to see a nice green candle in here. We might be getting it now |
| 15:14:44 Pete | I hope some of you avoided that bear trap and caught this move |
| 16:00:37 Pete | That last hour was fun. I felt like I was watching the US Open |
| 16:01:29 Pete | That double top on a massive 1OP spike was very tempting especially with those bearish hammers off of the VWAP |
| 16:02:06 Pete | 1OP has been spot on. Love it. |
| 19:33:36 Pete | Pretty steady selling after hours /ES |
| 19:36:58 Pete | SPY was at the top of IceCold Friday. You do not see that often |
| 19:52:31 Pete | Amaya_trade wrote: Pete wrote: SPY was at the top of IceCold Friday. You do not see that [email protected] @Hari do you think this drop will retest low of year ? I try not to think about it. All that does is... |