Daily Market Analysis

2022-08-25

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:00
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY–August is a slow month. The market had a 12% bounce in a month and now we are seeing some profit taking. The bleeding has stopped ahead of the Jackson Hole conference and we might be in...
09:34:00
Pete
Today could be like waiting for an FOMC statement. Keep that in the back of your mind. The market does not have much news to trade off so we are always in "hurry up and wait mode."
09:58:00
Pete
This is a nice little breakout to a two-day high. Normally I would be tempted to buy it, but 1OP is spiking and it is telling me not too. I also know that chop is likely ahead of Jackson Hole...
10:00:00
Pete
If I miss part of a gap n go, no worries. I will be able to get on board on my own terms. If I get the rug pulled out in what could be a dull market I will kick...
10:01:00
Pete
we have 3 nice stacked green candles and that is bullish.
10:07:00
Pete
Loved those 3 green candles and they are a sign of strength. I have to respect that move. That means that I would NOT short this bearish 1OP cross unless I see a bearish engulf and a second attempt at...
10:17:00
Pete
1OVol is showing that this SPY move is coming on < ave volume. we could drift higher on light volume, but that is a warning sign.
10:19:00
Pete
Watching this resistance build for SPY. Still no 1OP cross, but it is getting close
10:22:00
Pete
$416 is a support level I am watching. (half of the last long green candle). That is where I would take a small short. If the open of that candle fails I would add. This is going to be a...
10:23:00
Pete
If we go 15- 20 min into this bear cycle without any market retracement I start to think that this is going to be a bull div and I close my short and wait for more confirmation either way
10:30:00
Pete
That last candle was very bullish. We are tight at a major horizontal resistance level at $417.50. If we go thru that this could be a day were we just float higher. $417.50 was the gap down from Mon and...
10:40:00
Pete
At this juncture we have seen nice stacked green candles and follow thru. We have also seen a bearish 1OP cross that has run for 20 min without any sign of weakness. This has me bullish. We are at a...
10:42:00
Pete
I would like a compression at the hod or a small pullback. That dip will likely be a bullish flag. If we advance from here, you will need to start to buy. The problem with these gap n go formations...
10:47:00
Pete
Gap n go formations are not that common where the majority of the move takes place in the first 45 minutes. They are my least favorite formation because they force you to take immediate action. There are many more gap...
10:51:00
Pete
This is a bullish trend day. Your mentality is to only trade from the long side and to wait for dips to reload. We might get one now, we might grind higher. Know that at some point the market will...
11:05:00
Pete
We are getting the dip. 1OP bearish cycle still running its course. Now we want to see the half way point of the long green candle hold and by all means we want to see the open of that candle...
11:08:00
Pete
This is not what you would normally see in a bull trend day. We would stay closer to the hod and the retracement would not come so quickly. It would be smaller candles and mixed. This has me watching for...
11:09:00
Pete
Eventually price action is going to set up an opportunity for us. I just have to wait. When I see a market set-up I like I will tell you. To this point I am watching and evaluating and staying flexible.
11:14:00
Pete
Given that we are well into this bearish cycle, I would not be jumping on a bearish trade. The long green candles early tell me that at very least buyers will take one more shot at the hod. That could...
11:19:00
Pete
Strong move up, strong move down. both look good, both on light volume. Missed both moves, but I have not lost money on what we know is going to be a volatile day. Normally a good move is going to...
11:22:00
Pete
Since there is a lot of movement back and forth, we are getting very nice 1OP movement. This is likely to be a good bullish cross that is setting up. We need to see some tails under body and candle...
11:28:00
Pete
Question: If this question needs to be asked AH, let me know. I'm curious how option volume plays in to decisioning. Right now, call volume on 8/29 421 is higher than any other strike price. It's interesting to watch how...
11:30:00
Pete
This is a nice bullish engulf. Our buy could be setting up.
11:34:00
Pete
bullish cross pending. I would like to see a drop to $415 and then the candle turns into a bullish hammer as it completes. I would buy that. I will let you know when I would buy /ES just because...
11:41:00
Pete
i like what I see, but I have waited this long. not going to jump the gun. I want that red candle. That will be the final probe for support and if buyers step in it will tell me the...
11:47:00
Pete
1OP cross. I am ready to buy here if this candle turns green
11:48:00
Pete
I am long $416. Might as well make it official
11:58:00
Pete
Right now I am leaning on the bullish 1OP cross, the bullish engulfing candle and the strength I saw earlier today. I am NOT freaking out that the position is slightly against me right now.
11:59:00
Pete
This bullish hammer right here is a place where I would normally add, but not today. That was the second bid check I was waiting for.
12:09:00
Pete
My stop is the M5 tredline that extends back to yesterday and that touches the bottom of the bullish engulf candle. My target is $417.
12:10:00
Pete
i believe I mentioned that I am trading half size. Impt to size down on a day like this
12:19:00
Pete
Now I have to follow up. I was stopped for a 5 pt loss. We are still early in the 1OP bullish cycle and if this is a retest of support and be bounce, I would still be a willing...
12:22:00
Pete
Pete, why don't you just trade futures? If you look at the last 4-5 stock trades posted in the log, they are up or flat. I lost money on futures. That is why we trade stock
13:31:00
Pete
14:19:00
Pete
Looking like a double top lower high. I would short a red candle < $416.50 on this bearish cycle, but I want it soon. I would only take a 1/2 position
14:39:00
Pete
Short SPY $416.55
14:42:00
Pete
That is a 1/2 position. We have tested this resistance level twice and it is a choppy day. That means we are likely to test both sides. When a move in one direction stalls, we are likely to go the...
15:10:00
Pete
Exit SPY $416.50 - scratch. As posted my stop was my entry.
15:12:00
Pete
We are in the last hour of the day and we have not been able to move since the first two hours. No /ES set-ups, but some nice stock trades that all of you nailed
15:48:00
Pete
We have cleared horizontal resistance at $417.50 ahead of Fed Speak. That tells me that the bid is still strong and that this little drop was temp. If we do not get much of a reaction from that speech, we...
15:52:00
Pete
The last futures move had a good set up. I was short, did not get the move, scratched the trade and then the bearish cycle did not produce. That meant the bullish cross might have some punch. After a messy...
15:59:59
Pete
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